Topic . Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election It was one of the biggest news stories of our. Crucially for the Union, the SNP would be some distance off a majority share if the election was to be regarded as a 'de facto' referendum on independence, as Nicola Sturgeon has suggested. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the Labour party on 54% of the vote, up nine points on their previous record high with YouGov on Monday. We only ask you to donate what you can afford, with an option to cancel your subscription at any point. Poll Analysis: YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 - Ballot Box Scotland Boris Johnson Goads Rishi Sunak Over Poor Tory Poll Ratings Please click 'Create Account and Subscribe' to create a new account and subscribe to our email alerts. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. New poll shows majority of Scots in favour of same-sex marriage Speaking on BBC Scotland's Good Morning Scotland programme, Nicola Sturgeon said her aim at May's Holyrood election was winning a . Voting Intention polls & surveys | YouGov Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. Polling aggregator Stats for Lefties has calculated that, if this poll were repeated in a general election, the Tories would win just 17 seats behind Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. The result of an IndyRef today 2 March 2023. Opinion polling on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union And while 33 per cent said the UK Government was wrong to have blocked the bill, 50 per cent said it was right or within its rights to do so. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or New projections based on YouGov polling suggest the Conservative Party could be reduced to the UKs fourth-biggest party at the next election. "Yes to an independent Scotland", "No to an independent Scotland", "I will not vote" and "I am not registered to vote" were the options given. Last updated Nov 16, 2022 View all Trackers (4) Support for creation of a new English Parliament along the lines of the existing Scottish Parliament politics Surveys Data collected from extensive surveys and snap polls about or relating to Scottish independence. In the 2016 independence referendum, some 44.7% of Scottish voters backed Scotland becoming an independent country. 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The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. We haven't published any articles, trackers or survey results about Scottish independence. In the run-up to the next Scottish Parliament election, various organisations are conducting opinion polls to gauge voting intentions.Results of such polls are displayed in this list. Todays poll found that, among those who expressed a view, 76 per cent of voters believe the Scottish governments plans to change the law on gender recognition would pose a safety risk in women-only spaces, such as prisons, hospital wards and changing rooms while some 24 per cent disagreed. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;rBallot Box Scotland - Democracy in Detail Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. Four in ten Scottish voters want Nicola Sturgeon to resign, new poll suggests, Four in 10 Scots think Sturgeon should stand down, poll finds, Nicola Sturgeon opinion poll finds more than three-quarters of Scots think she should go, First Minister of Scotland: Runners and riders. Scottish Opinion Polls - Electoral Calculus YouGov | What the world thinks In early 2023, the No campaign had already regained an opinion poll lead, doing so at a time that coincided with the discussions about trans gender rights in the Scottish Parliament, and with the UK government subsequently invoking Section 35 of the Scotland Act for the first time in relation to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. In the latest YouGov voting intention poll, the Conservatives have closed their gap with Labour to just four points. A YouGov poll shows 56% of Scots support the . This page will bring you the latest breaking headlines, and updates automatically and continuously 24/7. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. Could Labour Profit From Nicola Sturgeons Resignation? The tide may be turning on Nicola Sturgeon and the Nats as a YouGov poll suggests the party could lose 23 seats while another UK survey suggests a collapse to just TEN MPs at the next General Election. However, following the Scottish parliament election of May 2021, one in which Nicola Sturgeon continued in government albeit in coalition with the Scottish greens , there have been signs of a slight drop off in enthusiasm for Scottish independence. Get the latest news from the Express straight to your inbox. Between January 2015 and December 2022 over 230 polls have been published and recorded in the main table. US ; About ; For business ; . Please try different keywords. This page was last edited on 4 March 2023, at 10:18. If you'd like to find out more about how polls work, how reliable they are and how to make sense of them, check out my book, Polling UnPacked: the History, Uses and Abuses of Political Opinion Polls, or sign up for my weekly email: The Conservatives meanwhile have dropped to 21% of current vote intention, down seven points. Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. King Charles III retains popular support in Wales, new poll shows, but In the latter part of 2020, the Conservatives lead in the polls diminished significantly. Latest general election voting intention opinion polls - Mark Pack Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. Tory Votes: YouGov Poll Shows Rishi Sunak Losing Leadership Race in In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. The YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of 1,088 Scottish voters shows support for the party dropped from 50% to 44% in the Holyrood constituency vote and from 40% to 36% in the regional list,. Latest opinion polls news, commentary and analysis, including political and voting intention polls, by polling companies including YouGov, Ipsos MORI and Survation. YouGov poll reveals vast majority (93%) of Brits don't wear real animal Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. 2019 thelondoneconomic.com - TLE, International House, 24 Holborn Viaduct, London EC1A 2BN. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.2 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. All Rights Reserved. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. Voting intention in the United Kingdom 2017-2023. Scottish independence poll: do people in Scotland want to be As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Education. Support for the SNP, for Nicola Sturgeon and for Scottish independence has fallen sharply as the partys crisis over transgender rights deepens. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Early 2021. Labour still lead in latest YouGov poll, but gap with Tories narrows to The poll also showed a reversal on the independence question over past month, with support for secession down from 53 per cent to 47 per cent among those expressing a view the lowest since last spring. Combining deep sector expertise with local knowledge to provide you with a deep understanding of your industry. 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The other tables reflect different ways questions around Independence can be asked, they may produce different results. A high percentage of respondents agreeing that people should be free to express their transgender identity does not however translate into support for reforming the Gender Recognition Act based on self-declaration. Further details of the latest voting intentions in relation to a Scottish independence referendum can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Techne (February 23) which placed the Yes side on 45.3% and the No side on 54.7%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Trend support for the Green Party has nudged up slightly to the 5%-6% mark. Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view? Should the public's feeling remain largely down. We do not charge or put articles behind a paywall. Redfield and Wilton (5 February) which placed Labour on 50%, the Conservatives on 24%, and the Liberal Democrts on 10%. Please check you have typed it correctly. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservative party has slipped behind the opposition Labour party to its lowest level since the 2019 national. In the space of a month, support for the SNP in the next Scottish parliament election had fallen from 50 per cent to 44 per cent in the constituency vote . YouGov poll: The mental health and wellbeing of employees are not supported by legal firms Law News 15:47 3-Feb-23. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit". A poll of more than 1,000 people . Truss Extends Lead Over Sunak in Race to Lead UK, Poll Shows But we can't do it without you. It found that the yes vote was ahead in only one age group, amongst 25-to-39-year-olds, while in all others no. Prince Harry's popularity in the UK has decreased by 35 percentage points over the past four years, a new survey by IPSOS has found. Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. Opinion Polling Sees Households Downbeat On Economy In Coming Months Another. Indeed Conservative support appeared to have grown slightly after Rishi Sunaks October 2021 budget. The new offer will see teachers getting a 12.3% increase by April 2023, and it will rise to 14% by 2024. What next for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour left? Savanta (23 February) which placed Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%. Week-in-Review: Covid sleaze is back and more politically potent than ever, Former Conservative party chairman: Sue Gray appointment proves Starmer is man of the establishment. However, it follows two other polls published in the last 48-hours that have put Labour well ahead of the Tories. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Please ensure your password has at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament. All Rights Reserved. Trump. Critics pointed out that the survey contained many in the 24 to 49-year-old age bracket. Former Sun boss and arch right-winger Kelvin MacKenzie also seemed to reach the same conclusion. Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". And 50% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 would now vote for Labour, up from 27% at the start of this week. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds. , in which Scotland voted to remain in the EU. Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. We are sorry, but the email address you entered does not appear to be valid. Sign up for a FREE NewsNow account and get our email alert of the day's top stories from the UK and around the world. Analysis pieces written by YouGov's data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. However after the Scottish National Party (SNP) formed a minority government in Edinburgh, support for Scottish independence started to grow again after 2007. You can unsubscribe whenever you want. All Rights Reserved. Opinion polling for UK general elections; 2010 election; Opinion polls: 2015 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: 2017 election; Opinion polls Leadership approval: . Sponsors of pro-Obi opinion polls creating grounds for post-election violence. Poll shows Scottish independence is not just a nationalist cause In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Given that the parliamentary results in Wales and Scotland are influenced by the existence of a fourth major party (Plaid and the SNP), Politics.co.uk has undertaken separate analysis for swings in Welsh and Scottish constituencies. Again, the Scottish sample is even small (103 out of 993 once don't knows are removed) but the survey puts Labour in the lead north of the Border on 40 per cent of the vote. British Social Attitudes Survey 39, reported in The Times, 22 Sep 2022Full results I Chapter on Culture WarsMain findings: YouGov, May 2022Full report I DataMain findings: Equalities, Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee, Scottish Parliament, reported 23 May 2022, Wings Over Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported on 02 May 2022: Voting for people who hate you. Indeed by the time that the Scot, Gordon Brown, became prime minister in 2007, support for Scottish independence had fallen back to 24%, its lowest level for over two decades. This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. A YouGov poll for the Times, reported today, found that nearly 50% of voters in Scotland who plan to vote Tory are doing so primarily to prevent a pro-independence majority in Holyrood. Polling includes only those that explicitly ask how the responder would vote in a hypothetical referendum on the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, rather than repeating the remain/leave question of the 2016 referendum. With Labour improving its polling position in Scotand, the party would now gain 12 seats off the SNP in Scotland, albeit the SNP would mitigate those losses slightly by gaining three seats from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems. Scotlands political landscape after Nicola Sturgeon? Copyright 2023 YouGov PLC. Most polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The exclusive poll, by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman, has support for Yes at its lowest level since just before the 2019 general election, which saw Boris Johnson's Conservative party earn an . and given the options of "Yes" and "No". Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Use at least 8 characters, an uppercase and a lowercase letter, and a number or symbol. We don't have an account for this email address. In the early part of the 2010s, with a Conservative coalition government in Westminster, and with the SNP focused on holding an indepdence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence grew further. Labour has surged to its largest poll lead over the Conservatives in more than two decades, with voters turning against Kwasi Kwarteng's tax-cutting budget.